Lower 48 natural gas production fell 3.13 Bcf/d on November 10, 2026, as compared to November 9, 2026. Over the past year, Tuesday's have seen production drop 77% of the time and on average the drop has been about 0.54 Bcf/d. Wednesday through Fridays see an average increase of 0.12 Bcf/d, 0.31 Bcf/d, and 0.30 Bcf/d, respectively. A significant part of the drop is in the Permian basin and some of it could be due to the online commencement of Blackcomb pipeline potentially displacing Permian interstate pipeline volumes. Permian has seen a recent drop in production since October 29, 2026.
Permian saw a drop of 1.29 Bcf/d. Current planned maintenance on the Permian is estimated to have caused a 0.47 Bcf/d production drop as NGPL is running ILI tool runs on Segment 9 Lockridge Lateral (CS 167, Lea Co.) from November 10 through November 13. Additionally, volumes on Rojo Toro went from 0.41 Bcf/d to 0 Bcf/d, Tres Osos and County Rd 55 receipts are shut, and northbound firm is cut to 58% of Maximum Daily Quantity (NGPL notice 47325). Part of this gas is rerouted to Lockridge Waha/Pecos receipts in West-TX which saw an increase of 0.20 Bcf/d. Transwestern NM receipts also rose by 0.20 Bcf/d. The Permian daily production model drop of 1.29 Bcf/d is much larger than the 0.24 actual net change drop in NM receipt-point Total Scheduled Quantity, so watch for higher nomination revisions by the end of today or tomorrow.
The Blackcomb story is a bit confusing: Enbridge noted in a recent presentation that Blackcomb is online and will ramp through 2027 to full volumes. MPLX noted recently that it has been commissioning gas since July. However, a FERC filing is required within 30 days of taking interstate gas, and Blackcomb’s interconnect to Agua Blanca appears to get gas from NM, so we would expect to see that filing prior to full operations, and the final compressor just received its TCEQ permit, two things indicating that the pipeline might not be flowing appreciable amounts of gas.
Haynesville LA saw a drop of 0.48 Bcf/d. Missing data accounts for roughly 0.22 Bcf/d. Gulf South Holly Field CP–Exco saw volumes go from 0.19 Bcf/d to 0 Bcf/d. ETC Tiger Exco/Holly went from 0.02 Bcf/d to 0 Bcf/d, with no notices. The LIG OFO Watch for Al Cormier Rd underperformance adds potentially a 0.09 Bcf/d drop as a Critical Notice (TCLI notice). Transco LEG gathering is down 0.23 Bcf/d with no notice.
Haynesville TX witnessed a drop of 0.43 Bcf/d. Only about 0.04 Bcf/d can be attributed to missing data with Gulf Run Markwest East TX going from 0.04 Bcf/d to 0 Bcf/d. The main declines are intrastate supply into Gulf Run on ETC HPL of 0.16 Bcf/d and NGPL Beckville of 0.14 Bcf/d, and no 11/10 outage notice covers these points. Additionally, this correlates to the weaker Gulf Coast LNG pull. Some of the gas is probably being rerouted onto Texas intrastate pipelines, which don't post nominations, rather than lost production.
The Northeast saw a drop of about 1.0 Bcf/d and critical notices are estimated to be about 0.32 Bcf/d of the drop. Dominion (EGTS) is limiting receipts because storage injectability is constrained while the North of Valley Gate cap of 500,000 Dth started today. Lee Hill Rd fell from 0.20 Bcf/d to 0.09 Bcf/d, impacting NE PA production of up to 0.11 Bcf/d. The South of Valley Gate restriction (no IT or overrun) cuts SW PA production by about 0.12 Bcf/d and WV by 0.09 Bcf/d. Skillet Hill and Apples Mills Rd went to zero. The rest of SW PA and NE PA saw declines on the points TETCO Bambino (0.18 Bcf/d), Equitrans Jupiter/Beacon, Transco Chapin/Tombs Run, TGP Liberty) with no matching outage notices.
On November 6, 2026, Enbridge Pipeline said that Blackcomb pipeline has entered service “and will ramp up to 2.5 Bcf/d through 2027”. The pipeline has been commissioning some amount of minimal volumes since July 2026. For now, there are no identifiable interstate interconnect pipeline points that can be tied to the Blackcomb pipeline. Enbridge still has 30 days notice to file with FERC when flowing gas into any interstate pipelines. It’s quite possible that some of the Permian modeled production drop since late October is due to natural gas volumes being rerouted from the Permian interstate pipelines into Blackcomb.
Most of today’s Permian interstate production drop occurred on two pipelines, El Paso Pipeline (EPNG) and Northern Natural Gas Pipeline (NNG). EPNG fell by 0.46 Bcf/d and NNG fell by 0.19 Bcf/d. The drop is predominantly at the Delaware plant outlets which include Kinetik Pelican Spring (0.20 Bcf/d), Salt Creek (0.13 Bcf/d), Coronado Midmar (0.12 Bcf/d), Targa Wildcat (0.1 Bcf/d). Brazos Blake Draw, Kinetik Salt Draw and Kinetik Toyah Lake all went to near zero on volumes.
At the same time, deliveries from the interstate lines into intrastate takeaway fell by about the same amount. That covers deliveries to Permian Highway (0.13 Bcf/d), Kinder Morgan (0.17 Bcf/d), Oasis (0.14 Bcf/d), ONEOK WesTex (0.12 Bcf/d), Agua Blanca (0.14 Bcf/d), and Trans-Pecos.
Processing plant gas that used to pass through EPNG/NNG on its way to intrastate pipes now seems to be going straight into intrastate. That's what one would expect if Blackcomb were hooked directly to plants. The change in flow also lines up with Nov 1, when monthly contracts start.
What argues against this is that Agua Dulce interstate receipts didn't change in October and November and EPNG has had repeated OFOs and capacity constraints in effect from November 8 to November 10. Some of the EPNG drop in flows could be operational rather than gas being rerouted to Blackcomb.
The bottom line is that this looks like the potential for rerouting gas to the Blackcomb pipeline beginning on November 1, not production falling off in the Permian. Up to about 0.7 Bcf/d of the Permian daily modeled production drop seen in interstate data may just be gas moving redirecting into Blackcomb pipeline. If the volumes at these plant points stay low through the rest of November while the EPNG notices clear, that would make a strong case for interstate production volumes being rerouted into the Blackcomb pipeline.
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