Yesterday was our quarterly pipe scrape regression update. Typically, this is covered in detail during our quarterly production webinar. However, due to technical issues we were unable to have the webinar live and we want to make sure we are clearly communicating these changes. Going forward we will email these updates prior to our webinar.
The relationship between aggregated regional interstate pipeline flows and state reported production is always changing. SynMax monitors these relationships as new state data becomes available and at a minimum we update our daily production model each quarter. This quarter we are revising upwards L48 production by an average of 0.33 bcfd over the previous 12 months. Regionally, there is offsetting between regions where we observe that pipe scrapes have underestimated production like WV, South - TX and Permian-NM and regions where there has been overestimation like Haynesville - LA, GOM, PA and to a very small extent West - TX. The details of this offsetting are in the chart above.
The most important region to watch over the coming months is West - TX where the new intrastate Matterhorn pipeline is bringing an unknown quantity of new gas to the market. Our current assumption is that Matterhorn is flowing between 1.3 and 1.5 bcfd of new gas. We will have much more insight into the exact amount of new gas as TRRC data becomes available for November and December. Any change to our assumptions will be immediately and clearly communicated to our customers.
As always please reach out to us at support@synmax.com with any questions.