We wanted to share our latest production update, covering our revised Long term Forecast for oil and natural gas as well as general model updates. View the full update on the Energy Dashboard and tune into our Quarterly Production Webinar, this morning at 10am EST.
2025 year-over-year oil production came in at 350 Mbd, down 59 Mbd on a static end-of-year basis. We have revised our 2026 forecast upward to approximately 360 Mbd (+55 Mbd), driven by two primary factors.
While producer guidance this quarter pointed to notably restrained growth — public producers were guiding just a 0.7% increase in 2026 — the efficiency commitments embedded in that guidance were just as aggressive as last year's, which already gave us reason to question the conservatism of those figures.
Following the outbreak of hostilities in Iran and the subsequent moves in the crude price curve — developments that occurred largely after earnings season — we find it difficult to see how there is not a meaningful knock-on effect on production, particularly given that the disruption appears likely to persist for at least several months. Our revised outlook reflects this view.
As has been the case, virtually all of the growth continues to come from the Permian Basin, constrained primarily by residual gas takeaway capacity. Most other basins remain flat to declining.
Changes to our daily production nowcast are modest this cycle. Overall, we have increased our Lower 48 estimate by 0.2 Bcf/d for March.
- **Haynesville Basin:** We have recalibrated the contribution of bullet pipelines delivering to the Gulf Coast, attributing a greater share of associated production to our Haynesville Texas sub-region relative to Louisiana. The net effect is an increase of approximately +0.3 Bcf/d in Texas, a decrease of approximately -0.1 Bcf/d in Louisiana, and a net Haynesville increase of ~0.2 Bcf/d for March.
- **South Texas:** We have identified additional nomination points that improve our coverage of this historically under-sampled sub-region, increasing our nowcast by approximately +0.4 Bcf/d for March. We continue to monitor South Texas closely given ongoing data coverage challenges.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.