Today’s big drop in Lower 48 production is led primarily by two regions: Haynesville & Northeast. There are essentially no missing nominations.
The Haynesville drop is predominantly driven by Gulf South of 0.40 Bcf/d and is likely due to maintenance from Carthage #2 Compressor Station, Hall Summit Compressor Station, and Sterlington Compressor.
The Northeast drop is mostly driven by Transco and Dominion - no recovery yet on CGT. With the force majeure lifted, rerouted volumes across the Northeast have been reduced for Monday nominations (primarily Transco and Dom South), but the CGT volumes for Monday morning cycles haven’t yet increased. (2.95 bcf/d today, vs average of 4.25 bcf/d pre-incident, and 2.46 bcf/d min on Sep 25). They are likely in the midst of “fixing” rerouting from the Saunders Creek leak; we expect CGT back by tonight’s evening cycle at the latest (and likely today’s ID cycles).
Cash at Dominion recovering to $1.40 for Monday trading confirms the constraint is easing but not fully resolved.
Read the full analysis on the dashboard.
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