(This research note is the same as yesterday's with the addition of gas results for the simulations...
SynMax Research: Earnings season for natural gas and oil producers is fast approaching. It is time to identify which companies have the potential to outperform or underperform their Q4 2025 production guidance.
Hyperion provides accurate, real-time fracking crew data on a company-level basis for all operators in the Lower 48 and Canada. This data offers a direct comparison to public company quarterly guidance. If a company’s frac crew count during the quarter averages above its guidance, it is reasonable to assume that production will likely exceed the midpoint or even the high-end range of its guidance. Conversely, if the frac crew count averages below guidance, production is likely to underperform relative to those expectations.
Public companies typically report conservative production ranges to Wall Street, which naturally skews performance toward the upside. Therefore, a producer maintaining a frac crew count above guidance is a much more significant indicator of outperformance than a count slightly below guidance is an indicator of a miss.
Q4 2025 Outlook: Outperformers vs. Underperformers
Based on Hyperion's real-time monitoring, we anticipate the following trends for the Q4 2025 earnings cycle:
- Potential Outperformers: Antero Resources (Northeast), Comstock Resources (Haynesville), and CNX Resources (Northeast).
- Potential Underperformers: Coterra Energy (Northeast & Permian), Apache Corporation (Permian), and Expand Energy (Northeast & Haynesville).
While we expect to see stronger reported production from the "Outperformer" group, it is important to note that efficiency gains continue to accelerate. These gains may allow the majority of producers to meet or exceed their midpoint guidance, even those whose frac crew counts trended slightly lower than expected.
The Private Producer Pivot
Private producers are increasingly "picking up the slack" in frac crew activity. This is particularly evident in the Haynesville Shale, where private operators now account for approximately 70% of total natural gas production.
While private guidance is not public, Hyperion tracks their real-time activity. For example, APEX NG LLC dramatically increased its frac crew count over the last year, suggesting a potential doubling of its production capacity. Notably, APEX has not slowed its activity despite the recent drop in Henry Hub 2026 futures prices.
Source: Hyperion Agents
Hyperion Agents: Real-Time Performance Tracking
Hyperion Agents allow you to track public company frac performance and analyze shifts from the prior quarter with simple natural language queries.
Try asking the Agent:
“Show me Matador Resources' daily frac crew count for Q4 2025 and compare it to their Q3 2025 frac crew count.”
Source: Hyperion Agents
Answer: “Here's the comparison of **Matador Resources' daily frac crew count** for Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025:
### **Overall Quarterly Comparison**
| Quarter | Avg Daily Crews | Min | Max | Active Days | Wellpads |
|---------|----------------|-----|-----|-------------|----------|
| **Q3 2025** | **3.22** | 2 | 5 | 92 days | 14 |
| **Q4 2025** | **2.84** | 1 | 5 | 82 days | 13 |
| **Change** | **-0.38 (-11.7%)** | | | | |
### **Monthly Breakdown**
**Q3 2025:**
- July: 3.26 avg crews/day
- August: 3.32 avg crews/day
- September: 3.07 avg crews/day
**Q4 2025:**
- October: 3.06 avg crews/day
- November: 3.77 avg crews/day
- December: 1.19 avg crews/day (⚠️ holiday slowdown)
### **Key Findings**
- **Adjusted for Seasonality**: When excluding December's holiday period (Dec 7-31), Q4 averaged **3.19 crews/day**, nearly matching Q3's **3.22 crews/day** (-0.7% change).
- **December Impact**: Frac activity dropped significantly starting December 7th, with only 1 crew active from Dec 7-29, before resuming to 3 crews on Dec 30-31.
- **November Peak**: November 2025 showed the **highest activity** of both quarters at 3.77 avg crews/day, peaking at 5 crews.
- **Geography**: All activity occurred in the **Permian Basin** across New Mexico and West Texas.
**Bottom Line**: Matador maintained relatively consistent frac crew activity between Q3 and Q4 2025 (~3.2 crews/day), with the apparent decline driven primarily by typical end-of-year holiday slowdown in December.”
Source: Hyperion Agents
Source: Hyperion Agents
