Based on SynMax's most recent short-term forecast, the 325 wells brought online since January 2025 are collectively producing an estimated 917.9 MMcf/d of dry gas. (All numbers for gas production as of the most recent STF for March 2026, for wells starting production since Jan 2025, and consequently include the effects of decline in the earlier wells from the period). The drilling is very gas-heavy, with state level data reporting 149 mmcf/d of gas and 10 mbd oil - an overwhelming gas focus. (Reduced numbers are from the fact that we don't yet have an oil STF, so we must use the state data with both oil and gas to determine the weighting, and that data has far fewer wells yet reporting.)
The activity spans 34 counties and 65 operators (after accounting for recent M&A consolidation), but the concentration is striking. Just five counties — Custer, Grady, Blaine, Roger Mills, and Canadian — account for the majority of new production, and five operators control over half of the new gas volumes.
Figure 1: Geographic distribution of 325 wells completed since January 2025. Circle size reflects gas production rate. Western Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin shelf dominates the activity.
The operator landscape has been reshaped by a wave of acquisitions over the past 18 months. After consolidating Citizen Energy's assets (acquired October 2025 for ~$2 billion), Validus Energy now commands the largest share of new Oklahoma gas production at 166.6 MMcf/d from 39 wells — roughly 18% of the total. Continental Resources follows at 126.5 MMcf/d (30 wells), with Tamworth Resources punching well above its weight at 81.0 MMcf/d from just 6 wells, suggesting exceptionally productive completions likely targeting the deeper Springer or Woodford intervals.
Other notable operators include Camino Natural Resources (66.3 MMcf/d), Mach Natural Resources (62.1 MMcf/d), and Mewbourne Oil Company (60.3 MMcf/d), a perennial Anadarko Basin stalwart. SandRidge Exploration's profile was similarly bolstered by its 2024 acquisition of Upland Operating, bringing its consolidated footprint to 13 wells and 47.2 MMcf/d.
Figure 3: The top five operators control over 55% of new well gas production, reflecting the ongoing consolidation trend in Oklahoma's mid-continent.
The pending Devon Energy-Coterra Energy merger (expected to close Q2 2026) and Ovintiv's reported $3 billion divestiture of Oklahoma assets suggest that further consolidation is on the horizon, which could concentrate production control even further.
Geographically, the activity is centered in the western Anadarko Basin. Custer County leads all counties at 248.2 MMcf/d from 36 wells, followed by Grady County (146.9 MMcf/d, 34 wells) and Blaine County (109.3 MMcf/d, 28 wells). Roger Mills and Canadian counties round out the top five. This clustering reflects operators' preference for the deep gas window of the STACK and SCOOP plays, where Woodford, Springer, and Meramec formations offer high initial gas rates and favorable economics at current strip pricing.
| County | Wells | Gas (MMcf/d) |
|---|---|---|
| Custer | 36 | 248.2 |
| Grady | 34 | 146.9 |
| Blaine | 28 | 109.3 |
| Roger Mills | 32 | 103.3 |
| Canadian | 27 | 87.6 |
| Pittsburg | 6 | 31.4 |
| Garvin | 15 | 29.2 |
| Ellis | 12 | 26.5 |
The gas-heavy production profile from Oklahoma's new wells is not accidental, and several factors likely explain why operators have leaned so heavily into gas-directed drilling:
1. Improving demand signals. Rising LNG feedgas demand from Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines, and the upcoming Golden Pass Train 1, robust power generation load growth from data center buildouts, and a cold 2025-2026 winter that drew storage below five-year averages.
2. Midstream consolidation improved market access: Howard Energy Partners closed on the 1.1 Bcf/d Midship Pipeline in early 2025, connecting western Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin directly to Gulf Coast markets, while smaller gathering expansions (e.g., Vivakor's Omega system in Blaine County) reduced last-mile constraints for new pads.
3. Capital discipline meets high-grading. In a post-shale-revolution environment where operators face investor pressure to maintain returns, the tendency is to drill only the highest-return wells. In Oklahoma's current commodity environment, the deep gas targets in the Anadarko Basin offer some of the best capital efficiency in the Lower 48, particularly for operators like Tamworth and Validus who appear to be achieving exceptional per-well productivity.
Oklahoma's gas production surprise is likely to persist through at least mid-2026, given the inventory of recently completed wells still ramping and the favorable forward curve environment. However, the concentration of activity among a handful of operators and counties introduces fragility — any operational disruption, M&A integration challenge, or commodity price reversal could slow the momentum. The Devon-Coterra merger and Ovintiv divestiture will be particularly important to monitor, as they could either accelerate or decelerate the pace of Oklahoma drilling depending on the acquiring operators' capital allocation priorities.
Data Source: SynMax Hyperion well database and short-term production forecasts. Production figures reflect March 2026 forecast month for wells with completion dates on or after January 1, 2025. Operator names reflect M&A consolidation through February 2026. This is an expansion of the basic content in this Synmax Agents dashboard.
As usual, reach out to support@synmax.com with any questions.