On October 9th, Northeast natural gas production returned to the September 19th levels right before the Cove Point LNG liquefaction terminal went down for its regular annual maintenance. Northeast production typically drops during the Cove Point LNG terminal maintenance period due to lack of demand and the usual lack of transportation and storage capacity in the Northeast region during September and October. This year is no exception as Northeast production fell during the Cove Point LNG terminal maintenance period.
Northeast natural gas production came back to the September 19th levels despite the Cove Point LNG terminal still being down as of October 9th. Northeast production is expected to increase additionally as the Cove Point LNG terminal comes back online from maintenance around October 10th and heating load demand increases later this month. There is also 1.9 Bcf/d of potential Northeast production sitting in DTILs (Deferred TILs) that can be placed online within 2 to 3 weeks. They will most likely come online during the November through December period when prices are more attractive.
Hyperion Frac Update
Natural gas frac crews remain down year-to-date as measured by Hyperion’s data. Natural gas cash delivery prices are expected to increase based on the forward curve as we get into the traditional winter heating season. With those higher natural gas cash delivery prices will likely come higher natural gas frac crews in the Lower 48 US. Guidance from fracking companies also point towards a rebound in frac crews during the 4th quarter of 2024 and the 1st quarter of 2025.