Northeast Natural Gas Production

Northeast natural gas production has remained subdued this summer due to high maintenance and force majeure events in the region and a lack of peak summer cooling demand since late June 2025.

Northeast natural gas production typically increases during the month of July as compared to June. However, production has done the complete opposite in July 2025.

From late June 2025 into July 2025, Nexus, Texas Eastern, Columbia Gas, Tennessee Gas, Dominion, and Equitrans pipelines have all experienced maintenance and force majeure events that have negatively impacted Northeast natural gas production in the region. The TCO outage in West Virginia and Ohio has lasted the longest compared to the other outages. The Athens compressor station force majeure on the TETCO pipeline has also been significant and is still offline for repairs. Finally, the pigging valve replacements on the Tennessee Gas pipeline have also likely impacted production of up to 670,000 MMBtu per day. In total, there is currently up to 1.5 Bcf/d of production in the Northeast that is offline due to maintenance and force majeure events.

As a result, July Northeast production has come in well below the long-term production forecast by up to 1.5 Bcf/d, while the short- term production forecast has been a lot closer. The short-term production forecast does not consider maintenance, and maintenance was not assumed in the long-term production forecast for the month of July. July Northeast production has still come in below the short-term production forecast, which indicates that Northeast producers are throttling back their well completions during the July 2025 maintenance season. 

While July maintenance has been unusually high in the Northeast, another drag on Northeast production has been a lack of July peak summer cooling demand. So far to date, summertime cooling demand in the Northeast peaked around late June. Temperatures have been trending downward since late June, thus causing a further drop in production.

Additionally, Northeast frac crews peaked around mid-June and have since dropped significantly. Overall frac crews have been sideways since the end of May.

The Northeast may need more frac crews to sustain a higher level of production. Using Hyperion’s production studio simulation analysis, it would take a sustained average increase of 4 frac crews above the current average levels to increase Northeast production by 1.5 Bcf/d over the next several months.  

 Summary

The total Northeast production impact from the maintenance and force majeure events could be anywhere from 0.5 Bcf/d to 1.5 Bcf/d for the month of July 2025. Once the maintenance events are completed, Northeast production is expected to increase to a range of 37.0 Bcf/d to 37.5 Bcf/d. However, this may not happen until there is substantially more demand in the Northeast market area, which means the Northeast region may not be able to sustain 37.0 Bcf/d plus natural gas production until the winter months of November through February. The fact that Northeast production has hovered below the short-term production forecast indicates that producers are throttling back their well completions in July 2025.