SynMax Research:
Based on today’s (2/01) GFS Operational 12Z, total natural gas freeze-offs during the 01/22 through 02/16 time period are expected to be between 59.3 Bcf to 86.4 Bcf, down from yesterday’s (1/31) 70.4 Bcf to 112.2 Bcf range as warmer weather forecasts beginning around 02/12 have taken out the production freeze-offs for that time period. We are still factoring in the risk of high-power outages in the Northeast on the upper end of the range.
The low end of the range (59.4 Bcf) is forecasted with minimal power outages.
The high end of the range (86.4 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in the Northeast.
At this time, while we lean towards the lower end of the range, based on our scrapes, actualized production freeze-offs from 01/20-02/01 have come in at 51.9 Bcf, which would be in the mid-range of what we have been forecasting.