SynMax Research:
Based on today’s (1/28) GFS Operational 12Z, total natural gas freeze-offs during the 01/22 through 02/12 time period are expected to be between 48.8 Bcf to 112.8 Bcf, up from yesterday’s (1/27) 45.9 Bcf to 116.8 Bcf range. Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX outages are now significant and are factored in for both the high and low end of the range from 01/25/2026 out to 01/29/2026 with expectations for a return of power after that. Based on the latest power outage data for the parishes and counties in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX, an additional 1.96 Bcf/d of production is assumed to be lost from 01/25/2026 to 01/29/2026.
The low end of the range (48.8 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX based on the latest power outage data and minimal power outages in the Permian and Northeast.
The high end of the range (112.8 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX based on the latest power outage data and significant power outages in the Permian and Northeast.
At this time, while we lean towards the lower end of the range, based on our scrapes, actualized production freeze-offs from 01/20-01/28 have come in at 47.4 Bcf, which would be in the mid-range of what we have been forecasting.