This month's update is a quiet one. We have refreshed our regressions against the latest state-reported data, and the results indicate our existing model is tracking well — no subregion required material revision. These changes will be live the morning of 22 May 26.

L48 Changes

Our L48 production estimate has been revised upward by an average of 0.01 Bcf/d since August 2025, and the current-day estimate has likewise increased by 0.01 Bcf/d. The net effect at the L48 level is negligible, and no individual subregion saw any material changes (i.e. this is not a result of offsetting regional changes).

As usual, if you have any questions, please reach out to support@synmax.com.

Appendix: Updated Alignment Dates

When fitting our daily production estimates, we consider two key dates for each subregion:

• State alignment cutoff: the date up to which we align our daily production estimates to state-reported production.  On this day and prior the daily production model monthly averages are guaranteed to match state data.
• Last fitted date (or "last good" date): the date up to which we regress against the state data. The last fitted date can sometimes extend beyond the state alignment cutoff — this occurs when we are modeling reporting delays and therefore fitting against our own version of the state data (as discussed here).

The current alignment dates by subregion are shown below: