SynMax Research:
The natural gas market has always been subject to the whims of Mother Nature, but in our view, the industry’s many facets are now influenced by weather to a greater extent than ever before.
On the demand side, our research continues to highlight the heightened sensitivity of HVAC requirements during extreme temperatures. We are also tracking how evolving infrastructure is shifting seasonal energy needs between traditional HVAC and electrical systems.
The recent weekly temperatures are the second coldest since 1994 (the year weekly storage data first became available). Today, January 26, 2026, is forecast to average 28.09°F—the coldest day since January 21, 2025 (27.13°F) and approaching the 1994 record of 23.47°F. Consequently, early indications suggest that total demand for January 26 will exceed 150 Bcf.
While the impact of cold on demand is well-documented, the effects on supply and LNG exports are more recent developments. On the supply side, as water freezes and expands, valves, pipes, and other production infrastructure are subject to failure. Perhaps more impactful is the potential for ice and sleet to collapse power lines; because a significant portion of gathering and transportation infrastructure is electrically powered, localized outages have a direct and severe impact on flow.
Figure 1 illustrates this reality: U.S. production fell significantly, with a sharp drop in Oklahoma (where temperatures hit 4°F and 5°F on Jan 24–25). Similarly, Haynesville production saw a notable decline as the region was disproportionately hit by power outages. De Soto Parish, which represents 34% of all Haynesville-LA gas production, experienced the second-highest outage rate in the state.
FIGURE 1
This production impact directly influenced regional pricing. As seen in Figure 2, Henry Hub cash prices surged from a low of $2.82 on January 15 to a weighted weekend package price of $30.72 for January 24–26.
The inadequate pipeline capacity between the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) and Erath, LA (Henry Hub) was clearly reflected in the basis spread. On January 15, HSC and Henry Hub were nearly in line ($2.55 vs $2.82). For the weekend package, HSC rose to $17.45—a significant jump, yet still nearly $13.00 below Henry Hub, signaling a lack of interstate capacity to move gas toward the Erath hub. In contrast, Permian (Waha) prices, which were negative ($1.20) on January 15, rose to $14.47, suggesting a more functional—though still strained—balance in Texas intrastate markets.
Figure 2
As domestic prices soared, a "strange coincidence" emerged regarding U.S. LNG. As revealed in Figure 3, domestic prices at Henry Hub briefly surpassed the European TTF benchmark. Simultaneously, U.S. LNG feedgas volumes plummeted from a peak of 19.50 Bcf on January 12 to just 12.00 Bcf on January 25.
While we do not explicitly attribute the feedgas drop to the production freeze-offs, the market signals are telling. It is highly probable that LNG buyers, granted wide latitude in their contracts, responded to the $30+ domestic price by selling contracted feedgas back into the local market—a lucrative "option" compared to international netbacks.
Our proprietary ship-tracking data shows consistent tanker departures over the last 30 days, suggesting that onsite LNG storage is being utilized to maintain loadings while feedgas is diverted. We expect that as temperatures moderate, feedgas flows will likely return to above 19 Bcf to refill these on-site buffers.
Figure 3
Operational Hazards Beyond the Wellhead
Extreme weather introduces further operational hurdles at the coast. LNG tankers require tugboat guidance for safe channel navigation. If weather prevents tug crews from operating or creates unsafe wind and wave conditions, tanker traffic can be halted regardless of feedgas availability. These complexities highlight the increasing necessity of natural gas storage as a critical "buffer" for a modern energy system where every link in the chain is under stress.
Operational Update: Port Activity and Inventory Outlook
There have been lowest levels of vessel loadings in 30 days (Figure below). This anomaly is likely attributable to staffing shortages, as extreme weather or local conditions have prevented employees from making it to work. However, we expect local inventory levels to normalize shortly, given the reduced volume of vessel loadings scheduled for the coming week.
Note- " 1 vessel loadings completed at US LNG terminals on January 27, 2026 as of 8:26 AM CT.
Conclusion The U.S. natural gas "energy chain" is more interconnected and vulnerable than ever. While prediction is difficult, SynMax Agents provide the tools necessary to track these supply/demand components and real-time values as they happen.
As noted, there are an increasing number of “links” in the US natural gas “energy chain” and each link may be impacted differently, resulting in increasing daily volatility of the supply/demand components.
While prediction is always difficult, SynMax agents provide useful tools to at least track and identify various supply/demand components and real time values.