Lower 48 dry gas production has dropped approximately 2.1 BCF/d over the first three days of June, falling from a recent peak of 111.25 BCF/d to 109.10 BCF/d as of June 3, 2026. The decline is concentrated in a handful of producing sub-regions and is primarily attributable to a convergence of scheduled and emergent pipeline maintenance events. The Haynesville Shale in Louisiana has absorbed the largest single hit, losing 0.67 BCF/d (−5.4%) as Tennessee Gas Pipeline issued an Operational Flow Order and Gulf South Pipeline underwent compressor maintenance. Northeast Pennsylvania and Ohio collectively shed an additional 0.63 BCF/d due to TETCO and Columbia Gas system work, while the Permian–New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Gulf of Mexico regions contributed a combined 0.45 BCF/d of further decline. In total, nine concurrent maintenance events across major interstate systems—including TGP, TETCO, Columbia Gas, Rover, EPNG, Transwestern, and Northern Natural Gas—are constraining roughly 1.49 BCF/d of takeaway capacity.
The outlook, however, points to a phased recovery. The majority of active maintenance events carry estimated completion dates between June 10 and June 20, suggesting that approximately half of the lost production—roughly 1.0 BCF/d—should return by mid-June, with a full recovery to the 111+ BCF/d range anticipated by late June to early July. This pattern is consistent with typical early-summer maintenance cycles, and the decline is not indicative of a structural shift in supply. Operators in the Appalachian Basin are expected to lead the rebound as Columbia Gas and TETCO constraints lift, followed by Haynesville volumes normalizing once TGP flow restrictions are removed. Barring any extensions to existing maintenance windows or new unplanned outages, national production should re-establish its pre-decline trajectory within the next three to four weeks.
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