LNG Canada Accelerates to Full Phase 1 Capacity; Golden Pass Confirms Q1 2026 Export Timeline Weekly

SynMax Research: 

LNG Canada: Train 2 Startup Drives 50% Export Surge

Following the successful production start-up at the second liquefaction train at LNG Canada, export activity is set to accelerate sharply through year-end.

Shell announced on November 7, 2025, that Train 2 has commenced LNG production, officially bringing the facility to its full Phase 1 operational capacity of 14 mtpa (1.84 Bcf/d). Each train holds a nameplate capacity of 7mtpa (0.92 Bcf/d), with Train 1 having been operational since June 22, 2025.

The massive step-up in November's forecasted volume reflects Train 2 beginning to contribute alongside Train 1's established operations.

• First Cargo Timeline: Train 1 moved from production start (June 22, 2025) to its first commercial export in 8 days. Applying the same timeline to Train 2's November 7 production announcement points to initial cargoes from the second train loading as early as November 15-17, 2025 (the end of this week).
• Operational Flexibility: With both trains online, the facility gains operational flexibility necessary for long-term consistency. This dual-train configuration allows for continuous export operations even during planned maintenance, positioning LNG Canada to sustain steady-state monthly volumes in the 50-55 Bcf range (13-15 cargoes).
• Based on current Leviaton platform data, 9 cargoes totaling 32.9 Bcf are forecasted to load in November 2025, representing a 50% month-over-month increase from October's 22.0 Bcf.

Critically, all LNG Canada volumes are flowing exclusively to East Asian markets (Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan), adding fresh supply to the region and reducing the volume of flexible cargoes available for European buyers to compete for in the global spot market.

Looking ahead, LNG Canada's Phase 2 expansion is expected to reach FID in late 2026 or early 2027. SynMax Vulcan is actively monitoring the site through satellite imagery, tracking land clearing progress and initial structural development—applying the same analytical approach used to monitor Phase 1 construction.  

Golden Pass Update

FERC has granted Golden Pass LNG authorization to flow fuel gas to its 6 mtpa Train 1, marking a critical step in the facility's commissioning process. 

This update follows our previous reporting on the cool-down cargo currently en route to the facility. The LNG carrier IMSAIKAH (IMO 9977256) departed Ras Laffan, Qatar on October 29, 2025, and is currently transiting the Atlantic with a Leviaton platform ETA of December 4, 2025, for delivery to Golden Pass. The vessel is carrying the cargo required for initial tank cool-down operations at Train 1.

Following this timeline—fuel gas authorization in mid-November and cool-down cargo arrival in early December—first liquefaction and initial LNG exports from Train 1 are expected in late Q1 2026. 

This schedule aligns with typical commissioning timelines where facilities require 8-12 weeks from fuel gas introduction and tank cool-down to first commercial cargo. The SynMax Leviaton team is maintaining continuous tracking on IMSAIKAH's movements and will report any deviation from its current route, as changes to the vessel's trajectory could signal shifts in the commissioning timeline.

Interested in subscribing or demo to the Vulcan platform - which includes monitoring of LNG, Gas Pipelines, Power, and Data Center projects? Please reach out to our Lead Researcher, David Bellman at dbellman@synmax.com.