Hyperion Long Term Forecast Update

Summary

Only minor updates to natural gas, mostly on weather and actuals, with the most significant increases being in South Texas and Permian.  Significant updates to oil in Permian and the Gulf, based on both higher actuals, and the implications of increased efficiency.  See Hyperion for detailed differences.

Natural Gas Updates 

Since our last update on 8/29/2025, we have made some minor changes to the long-term natural gas production forecast. Lower 48 November-2025 production was revised lower by 0.8 Bcf/d due to warmer than normal weather and full storage levels. Northeast November-2025 production was revised lower by 0.4 Bcf/d and Haynesville November-2025 production was revised lower by 0.4 Bcf/d. Lower 48 December-2025 production was revised higher by 0.2 Bcf/d due to higher expected associated oil production in West Texas. Calendar year 2026, 2027, and 2028 production were revised higher by 0.3 Bcf/d, 0.5 Bcf/d, and 0.6 Bcf/d, respectively due to higher expected associated oil production in Permian and higher production in general in South Texas.

Oil Updates

We have made significant changes to the oil forecast, but limited to the Gulf and Permian.  Both of those are higher on Q2/3 actuals, and Permian is higher on revised expectations for continued efficiency gains.  Permian is higher by approximately 100 mbd in November, and 2025 yoy is now up over 400 mbd.  Much of the increase compared to last quarter for 2025 is 88 mbd in the Gulf from the lack of hurricane activity.  2026 was revised up by over 122 mbd, with approximately 50 coming from the Permian and the remainder from the outlook for the Gulf.