SynMax Research:
Due to the diversion of interstate natural gas production to intrastate gathering pipelines like LEG as well as additional production that has come directly to NG3, we are implementing an upward adjustment to Hyperion’s Haynesville production pipeline scrape data. This includes a necessary adjustment to our Haynesville Texas pipeline production scrape data to reflect a methodology update. To capture the full effect of new, expanded interconnects on NG3 which are additional production, we are adding natural gas volumes and adjusting the historical data for both the Haynesville Texas and Haynesville Louisiana subregions. The total upward revision to the Haynesville production pipeline scrape data will average approximately 0.2 Bcf/d in September 2025 and 0.6 Bcf/d in October 2025.
Haynesville Texas
Production pipeline scrape data for Haynesville Texas is being adjusted upward by a constant 0.2 Bcf/d starting on 09/01/2025 as the commencement of the NG3 gathering has caused interstate production flows to drop in the subregion. Haynesville Texas is a subregion that has one of the lowest available samples of interstate production pipeline natural gas compared to total natural gas production from monthly state data. Additionally, beginning around the time when NG3 came online in late August/early September, Haynesville Texas pipeline scrape production data began drifting lower than Hyperion’s short-term production forecast (STF, which models all existing and future wells) after tracking it more closely during the time before late August. We will be implementing a more robust modeling adjustment in the next month.
Haynesville Louisiana
Production pipeline scrape data for Haynesville Louisiana will be adjusted upward beginning around 10/1/2025 with the addition of new NG3 interconnect points with interstate pipelines. The new interconnect points began flowing natural gas volumes throughout the month of October and eventually caused Haynesville Louisiana interstate pipeline production points to drop beginning around mid-October. The revision varies daily, but on average the addition of the new NG3 interconnect points will cause Haynesville Louisiana production pipeline scrape data to be revised upward by around 0.4 Bcf/d on average for October.