Hyperion data shows that Expand Energy in the Haynesville basin has been running the same number of rigs and frac crews on average since early April-2025.
This wasn’t the case between January 1, 2025, and March 31, 2025, when Expand Energy was on average running 6.6 rigs and 2.9 frac crews. 6.6 rigs and 2.9 frac crews is about a 2.3 to 1 ratio of rigs to frac crews. Hyperion analysis has shown that it takes around 2.5 rigs for every frac crew to keep a company’s DUC (drilled but uncompleted well) count stable, but one can see that their DUCs began dropping in late February 2025, ever since the company’s ratio fell below 2.5.
Over the course of the last month, Expand Energy’s DUC count in Haynesville fell by 11 from 50 to 39. The month before in April, the company’s DUC count fell by 9 from 59 to 50. At the current ratio, Expand Energy in Haynesville will run out of DUCs 5 months from now if the company doesn’t add new rigs soon.
If the company is going to maintain 6 frac crews in the Haynesville basin, they will have to add at least 7 more rigs to their Haynesville acreage to stabilize their DUC count in the basin, or they can reduce their crew count to about 2.5. However, as of the company’s latest guidance forecast in Q1 2025, Expand was planning on adding 1-2 more rigs to their Haynesville acreage for the balance of 2025. However, this isn’t going to be enough rigs to keep the company from running out of DUCs soon. Expand Energy will either need to add more rigs or reduce their frac crew count. More rigs for Expand Energy in Haynesville please!