EQT has been curtailing natural gas production in Southwestern Pennsylvania off and on throughout 2024 and it has been highly correlated to next day delivery cash prices at Dominion South.
The company’s full throttle potential natural gas production in Southwestern Pennsylvania (SWPA) is around 3 Bcf/d and it occurred when Dominion cash prices went over $2.00 / MMBtu back in June 2024. EQT’s current production in SWPA is around 2.1 Bcf/d with Dominion cash prices around $1.20 / MMBtu. EQT’s SWPA production has been fluctuating as much as 1.0 Bcf/d, with much more frequent swings of around 0.5 Bcf/d in between. This is because Dominion South cash prices have been vacillating around the $1.25 / MMBtu price level, which is EQT’s breakeven price for curtailing production. EQT can curtail up to 0.5 Bcf/d with a click of a mouse and then bring the production back on just as quickly.
Based on the forward curve for Dominion South, some shut-in production should be back online in October with prices at ~$1.58 / MMBtu and then expect production to return to the highs of 3.0 Bcf/d by November with Dominion South prices over $2.00 / MMBtu. Stay tuned!