Chevron (CVX)
All FY 2026 figures are Hess-acquisition adjusted. (1) Chevron reaffirmed its full-year 2026 corporate production guidance of +7% to +10% YoY (3,980–4,100 MBOED) on its Q1 2026 call (May 1, 2026), unchanged from Q4 2025; with no explicit US natural gas guide, our Hyperion-derived FY26 Lower 48 natural gas estimate of ~3.42 Bcf/d is shown on a Hess-adjusted basis — vs FY25 reported of 3.099 Bcf/d (+10.4% headline) the apples-to-apples organic comparison vs FY25 pro-forma of 3.224 Bcf/d (full-year Hess) is +6.7% organic ex-Hess, since the Hess merger closed July 18, 2025 and FY25 reported contains only ~6 months of Hess Bakken (~0.25 Bcf/d full-year contribution)
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ExxonMobil (XOM)
ExxonMobil's U.S. (Lower 48) natural gas production grew from 2.887 Bcf/d in FY 2024 to 3.364 Bcf/d in FY 2025 (+16.5% YoY) and accelerated to a record 3.589 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, driven almost entirely by Permian unconventional growth where production set a record 1.8 Moebd in Q4 2025 and the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 Permian guidance of ~1.8 Moebd (≈+200 koebd YoY). Although XOM does not publish an explicit Lower 48 natural gas guidance number, both the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 EPS presentations and earnings calls reaffirmed the same Permian growth trajectory and the same technology stack — lightweight proppant (~25% of 2025 wells, targeting ~50% by year-end 2026), proprietary cube designs, +40 stackable subsurface technologies, and Permian rig automation — which together imply FY 2026 Lower 48 gas of ~3.65–3.70 Bcf/d (+8–10% YoY).
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