Earnings Highlights BP, EPD, EXE & NBR
British Petroleum (BP)
BP guides full-year 2026 group underlying upstream production "broadly flat" vs 2025 (~2.3 mboed ex-divestments), but bpx Lower 48 natural gas already ran +12.4% above the FY25 average in Q1 2026 (1.768 vs 1.573 Bcf/d), and SynMax forecasts FY 2026 bpx gas at ~1.806 Bcf/d (+14.8% YoY) — well above BP's flat framing.
Efficiency gains in 2025 were real and durable — bpx delivered 20% faster completions, 9% faster drilling, and the same Lower 48 resource unlock with 8 rigs vs the prior 10; AI (Wells Advisor, kick-detection), pad design and frac optimization continue to drive 2026 capital productivity, supporting our above-guidance Lower 48 forecast.
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Enterprise Products (EPD)
Larger producers remain capital disciplined despite the supply shock (only private rigs moving incrementally), but Permian gas-to-oil ratios keep climbing — gas+NGL production growth is now 1.6x crude growth — supporting EPD's view that processing cadence shifts to 2 plants/year (from 1-2/yr), with international ethane/LPG/ethylene demand likely to remain elevated through 2026 and possibly into 2027.
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Expand Energy (EXE)
Current guidance contemplates seasonal curtailments in 2Q26. On the Q1 2026 earnings call (Apr 29, 2026), EXE management explicitly stated they are prepared to defer turn-in-lines (TILs) into the back half of 2026 if shoulder-season pricing remains weak — the operational lever behind the curtailment language. This is a forward-tense escalation from the Q4 2025 call, where curtailment commentary was past-tense (NE App volumes returning after prior-period defers). FY26 TIL cadence (~225 wells) is held in the guide, but timing is now flexible: management framed it as "we will not chase volumes into a soft 2Q cash market — TILs can move to 3Q/4Q as demand pulls." Hyperion takeaway: watch for completed-but-not-flowing well inventory builds in Haynesville & NE App through April–June; expect a steeper 3Q/4Q ramp as deferred pads are brought online into winter strip strength. This compounds the 2Q26 nomination softness.
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Nabor Industries (NBR)
Nabors' Q1 2026 print marks a clear inflection in its Lower 48 outlook — average rigs working rose to 65.3 (from 59.8 in Q4 2025), the working count exited the quarter at 66 (+8 since November), and management now expects to sustain ~69 rigs through year-end 2026, well above the original FY 2026 guide of 61–64.
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As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.
