August Hyperion Model Updates

Demand model recalibrations

With the latest release of the EIA's monthly demand data through May 2026, we have updated our demand models accordingly. Modeled demand for the month of May was largely aligned with with the posted EIA numbers, with the total demand realizing within 0.8 Bcf/d of the official EIA monthly data.

As a result, modeled demand numbers from June 1 onwards are effectively unchanged.

Daily Production Update

This month's update is another light one. We have refreshed our regressions against the latest state-reported data, and our existing model continues to track well across almost every subregion. These changes will be live the morning of 6 August 26.

L48 Changes

At the L48 level, the effect is small. Our production estimate has been revised down by an average of -0.06 Bcf/d since February 2026, and the current-day estimate has increased by 0.02 Bcf/d. 

Repeated from our last update:

The short-term forecast (STF) is worth dwelling on this month, because it has pulled visibly away from the nowcast. The STF estimates total production capacity in a frictionless grid, so the gap between it and actual daily/monthly production is informative in its own right: it shows where real-world frictions such as maintenance, deferred flow, or pipeline constraints are holding volumes back. As the chart shows, that gap was modest through late 2025 but has widened steadily since around March 2026, with the STF now running well above realized production.

The Appalachian subregions account for over half of it. West Virginia leads at 0.71 Bcf/d, followed by NE Pennsylvania (0.53 Bcf/d, against an 11.93 Bcf/d STF) and Ohio (0.51 Bcf/d), a combined 1.97 Bcf/d. These reflect maintenance and Northeast producers deferring flow or choking back newly TILed wells. The Haynesville contributes 0.67 Bcf/d (LA 0.38 Bcf/d against an 11.51 Bcf/d STF; TX 0.29 Bcf/d), mainly maintenance. Permian-NM adds 0.47 Bcf/d (against a 10.46 Bcf/d STF), reflecting both maintenance and a shortage of pipeline capacity. The West Texas gap, by contrast, has now closed, consistent with the Gulf Coast Express expansion and the Hugh Brinson pipeline, which has flowed some production since roughly mid-June 2026.

Because the STF reflects capacity, the gap also indicates how much constrained supply is likely to return: we expect it to close by December 2026, as Northeast producers stop deferring and choking back wells, maintenance eases, Hugh Brinson ramps up, and the Blackcomb pipeline comes online.

Change to Overnight Daily Production Estimates

From 6 August, when a pipeline has not yet posted nominations for the coming gas day, we carry forward its recent flows as a best estimate rather than modelling on the partial picture. You get a number that means something from the first print, instead of one that has to climb into place overnight. In practice this changes little for US-based users — by the start of the Central gas day the picture was usually complete anyway; the benefit is mostly for anyone reading the number overnight.

As usual, if you have any questions, please reach out to support@synmax.com.

Appendix: Updated Alignment Dates

When fitting our daily production estimates, we consider two key dates for each subregion:

• State alignment cutoff: the date up to which we align our daily production estimates to state-reported production.  On this day and prior the daily production model monthly averages are guaranteed to match state data.
• Last fitted date (or "last good" date): the date up to which we regress against the state data. The last fitted date can sometimes extend beyond the state alignment cutoff — this occurs when we are modeling reporting delays and therefore fitting against our own version of the state data (as discussed here).

The current alignment dates by subregion are shown below: