Hyperion Supply Analytics | Forecast: 111.52 Bcf/d | Updated: July 28, 2026
Lower 48 daily dry gas production is forecast to average 111.52 Bcf/d in August 2026, up ~1.0 Bcf/d from July's realized average of ~110.5 Bcf/d. End-of-July production surged to 111.5–112.0 Bcf/d, providing upside entry momentum into August. July tracked right on target with the long-term forecast of 110.53 Bcf/d.
Upside drivers: Strong TIL activity — 41 wells (0.91 Bcf/d IP) turned in line since June, led by Expand Energy in Haynesville and EQT in Marcellus. Late-July production momentum and scheduled maintenance roll-offs provide additional lift of +0.2 to +0.4 Bcf/d. However, deferred flows (DFLOWs) are constraining NE PA and SW PA — 26 wells with 0.51 Bcf/d of IP capacity aren't yet showing up in daily production, capping near-term Northeast supply gains.
Downside risks: Measured pipeline outage impact is 0.76 Bcf/d gross (~0.3–0.5 Bcf/d net after rerouting) across 10 pipelines, led by Enable Gas Transmission (−0.35 Bcf/d, force majeure). At $2.50 Henry Hub, existing production won't be curtailed, but Haynesville new-well economics fall below breakeven — slowing future TIL activity and dampening the supply growth trajectory into late Q3/Q4. Any LNG terminal maintenance or turnaround would be significant downside risk. Tropical weather and unplanned outage escalation remain tail risks.
Production Range: 110.5 – 112.5 Bcf/d | Bias: Slight upside, contingent on DFLOW resolution and maintenance roll-offs materializing as scheduled.