Recently, EQT stated that the company is looking to unlock more natural gas production using alternative production maximization techniques in the Marcellus basin. These techniques used to increase production include refracking older wells, workovers on older wells, and midstream compression. Most of the techniques typically deal with how to get more production from older, less productive wells. While it is difficult to determine how much additional production by basin can occur, there is some historical guidance using well level production data and from what EQT has said in the past from presentations and conference calls. 

Analysis and Estimation in the Northeast

This analysis uses historical state well level data in addition to looking at historical EQT earnings calls and presentations to determine how much additional production can result from alternative production maximization techniques. The conclusion is that these methods and techniques could increase Northeast (Marcellus/Utica) natural gas production by about 1.0 Bcf/d 5 years from now.  

Looking at past history, from 2019-2025, these techniques contributed to a 1.0 Bcf/d increase in Northeast natural gas production. For the Northeast (Marcellus/Utica), the midstream compression technique or method is assumed to have the larger production uplift in the first few years and then refracking and workovers contribute more significantly by years 4 and 5. 

Analysis and Estimation in Other Basins

The other basins, which include Haynesville, Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and DJ, could see an additional 1.0 Bcf/d of production increases over the next 5 years. Haynesville looks to be the strongest candidate outside of Marcellus due to its wider well spacing (which reduces the risk during refracturing). Haynesville has relatively more refracking opportunities from older wells compared to the other basins. There was a Comstock Resources well in Haynesville that was underperforming due to a high bottom hole pressure drawdown and low proppant volumes in its original fracking completion. Refracking the well increased the production rate initially from 0.5 MMcf/d to 4.0 MMcf/d and then held at 2.5 MMcf/d over the first 3 months. Expand Energy is also looking for more well refracking candidates in Marcellus and Haynesville. Many of these are vintage 2015-2018 wells. ConocoPhillips is looking to refrack about 1,000 wells in the Eagle Ford. Many of those refracking candidates in Eagle Ford are Marathon’s older wells. ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil in November 2024.  

Permian would predominantly see more midstream compression with minimal refracking and workovers. Eagle Ford would see a lot more refracking opportunities while Bakken and DJ would have more midstream compression opportunities. Bakken will need more pipeline takeaway capacity in the future for further production maximization techniques.    

In sum, total Lower 48 natural gas production could increase by over 2.0 Bcf/d over the next 5 years from alternative production maximization techniques. This is probably a conservative estimate as companies will likely improve refracking, workovers, and midstream compression capabilities over the next 3 to 5 years, especially with the use of AI.      

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