The 1-15-day weather forecasts for January 15th have gotten significantly warmer compared to January 14th. Natural gas production freeze-offs as a result are revised lower from yesterday. Most of the revised lower production freeze-offs come from the Northeast and Oklahoma regions. Actual Northeast production freeze-offs are coming in quite a bit lower than forecasted. As a result, we have lowered our Northeast production freeze-off estimate for the balance of January-2024. Total Lower 48 natural gas production freeze-offs are now estimated to be 46.4 Bcf compared to 73.6 Bcf for yesterday. We have also adjusted the cumulative production freeze-off period to begin on January 9th instead of January 10th.
The table below shows the actualized production freeze-offs by sub-region. Northeast production freeze-offs have been coming in significantly lower than expected.
Crude oil production freeze-offs are unchanged from yesterday.