The Week in Energy: A Data-Driven Look at NG Shut-Ins, Pipeline Maintenance, and Global LNG (redacted for prospects)

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Northeast NG Production Shut-Ins

As discussed in our quarterly production webinar on Friday, August 31st, 2025, the Northeast natural gas market, particularly in Pennsylvania, is beginning to see production shut-ins. This seasonal trend typically occurs in September and October as regional demand drops and natural gas storage caverns approach maximum capacity.

From September 2nd to September 3rd, total Pennsylvania natural gas production fell by approximately 1.5 Bcf/d after cash prices at the Dominion South hub traded below $1.30/MMBtu over the weekend. Our analysis indicates that roughly X Bcf/d of this decline is due to production shut-ins, with the remaining X Bcf/d resulting from a lack of nominations.

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Approximately X Bcf/d of natural gas production has been shut-in, with a significant portion coming from EQT Corporation in Southwestern Pennsylvania. Historically, EQT has curtailed up to XX Bcf/d of production when next-day cash prices at Dominion South have fallen to or below the $1.30/MMBtu threshold.

Northeast Summer NG Pipeline Maintenance 2025

The summer of 2025 has been a period of relatively high pipeline maintenance in the Northeast compared to 2024. The number of maintenance events impacting regional natural gas production in July and August 2025 was significantly higher than in the same period last year.

Our data shows that 2025 experienced a three- to fourfold increase in pipeline maintenance events that likely affected production. This resulted in an estimated X Bcf/d of lost production in July-August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.

We are working to incorporate this maintenance data into a centralized database, which will be accessible to you via API or Snowflake.

Haynesville LA Daily Production and LEG

We have also observed recent declines in our Haynesville LA daily production model and are investigating the possibility of gas flows from visible interstate points on to invisible intrastate pipes. Our early analysis does not show that this is a significant factor. These declines align well with both our short and long term forecasts. We will continue to monitor for evidence that adjustments to this model are needed and will alert you if anything changes.

Leviaton August Forecast

As a reminder, Hyperion users now have full access to Leviaton, our advanced LNG analytics platform. The latest forecasts can be retrieved directly through the user interface or via our Jupyter notebook API scripts. For those interested in API integration, please contact us for a sample implementation guide.

Our August forecast proved highly accurate. Following our July 31, 2025 report, we projected that European gas inventory would continue to build through August, primarily driven by sustained LNG shipments. We predicted end-of-August inventory would reach 76.8%, with the actual figure coming in at 77.5%—a difference of just 0.9%. While our Leviaton LNG import forecast of 391 bcf exceeded the actual 364 bcf by 6.9%, the overall bearish sentiment held true as other market factors aligned with our baseline assumptions, supporting the inventory build.

Looking ahead to September, our current forecast indicates X bcf of LNG imports. After applying our 10.6% bias correction factor, this adjusts to X bcf—X bcf higher than last September's 315 bcf. We continue to project that European inventories will reach their regulatory targets ahead of schedule, with the 83% storage target expected to be achieved by the end of September.

For those without access to our July report who would like to review the full analysis, please contact us directly.

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Dark LNG Update

As of September 2, 2025, the table below provides an update on the activities of all OFAC-sanctioned LNG vessels. Vessels highlighted in red are expected to deliver cargo to Chinese markets soon, while those in gray have already delivered Arctic LNG 2-sourced cargo.

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